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China Property Market – Q2 2017

Highlights

  • Chinese economy remained its growth momentum in Q2 2017, with GDP increased by 6.9% y-o-y, in line with the pace of Q1.

 

  • With tighter control measures in place, residential markets of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were quiet in Q2. Transaction volume remained at low levels.

 

  • Housing prices in the four first tier cities remained stable in Q2 despite the stricter control measures, which are still higher than the same period last year.

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HK Housing Market – Will History Repeat Itself?

  • The record high housing price in Hong Kong has raised some concerns over the possibility of an adjustment in price, and some commentators even suggested that housing price would plunge this year as it did in 1997.

 

  • This report explains the demand- and supply-side factors that affect Hong Kong’s housing price, and analyses the outlook of housing market by comparing those factors between 2017 and 1997. The demand-side factors discussed include the economic condition, interest rate and bank credit, while the supply-side factors are supply and construction costs.

 

  • Our finding from the analysis is that Hong Kong’s housing market is still stable given the robust economy, ample liquidity, low interest rate, insufficient supply and stable constructions costs.

 

  • Even if the housing market reverses, the government will remove some of the prudential measures that it implemented in the past years. Therefore, housing price is unlikely to plunge in the near future.

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Sydney Office

Research - Sydney Office

Albeit the country is at the end of the mining boom, the Sydney economy expanded strongly in 2015-2016, with 4.5% GDP growth rate during the period, outpacing the national level of 2.4%. The Australian economy has been transitioning from mining dependent to service-based in the past years. Benefiting from the lower exchange rate, service exports, including tourism and education, have picked up and reached a total amount of AUD 49.5 billion in 2015, 62% higher than 10 years ago. The service sector is expected to be supported by a steady increase in household consumption and investment as wages and employment rise. At the same time, the service sector employment has positive growth which will continue underpinning healthy tenant demand for office space.

On the supply side, due to the continuously rising residential property prices, quite a number of office buildings were changed to residential, resulting in office supply lagging behind its demand growth. Besides, some office buildings were requisitioned for accomodating the new metro project and revamp of Circular Quay, exacerbated the situation of tight supply.

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